California: The COVID-19 Baby Bump: Surprising Trends in U.S. Births
California: The COVID-19 Baby Bump: Surprising Trends in U.S. Births
A study (The COVID-19 Baby Bump: Surprising Trends in U.S. Births) reveals unexpected changes in U.S. births during the pandemic, challenging assumptions about how economic crises affect fertility.
The big picture
Despite predictions of a "COVID baby bust," U.S. births increased among U.S.-born women in 2021, while births to foreign-born women fell sharply. The study used detailed birth data covering 2015-2021 for the U.S. and through February 2023 for California.
By the numbers
Births to U.S.-born women exceeded pre-pandemic trends by 5.1% in 2021, resulting in a net gain of 40,000 births in 2020-2021. Data from California suggest an additional 134,000 births above trend from January 2022 to February 2023.
60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by a 5.2% decrease in births to foreign-born mothers, with 85,000 fewer births than expected in 2020-2021.
The COVID-19 baby bump was most pronounced for first births (+5.3%), women under 25 (+4.5% for ages 15-19, +4.3% for ages 20-24), and college-educated women aged 30-34 (+6%).
Between the lines
The baby bump among U.S.-born women may be linked to pandemic-related factors like increased work-from-home flexibility, reduced opportunity costs of childbearing, and income support programs. Births began rising around the time the first stimulus checks arrived.
Yes, but not all groups experienced the baby bump equally. Births to African Americans declined by 3.3% relative to pre-pandemic trends through 2021, likely reflecting the disproportionate economic and health impacts of the pandemic on this group.
Bottomline
The COVID-19 pandemic upended typical patterns of fertility response to economic crises, revealing the complex interplay of policy, work arrangements, and individual circumstances in shaping childbearing decisions in the face of an unprecedented public health and economic shock.