Denmark & Germany: Unemployment Benefits Protects Birth Rates
Denmark & Germany: Unemployment Benefits Protects Birth Rates
A 2014 study (Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: Evidence from Denmark and Germany by Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson) using data from Denmark and Germany finds that unemployment's impact on fertility varies significantly by age, education level, and gender. The results challenge the notion that unemployment universally leads to fertility postponement.
Why it matters: Understanding the nuances of how unemployment affects childbearing is important as economic uncertainty becomes more common. The findings suggest the fertility response to unemployment highly depends on individual life circumstances and the social safety net.
By the numbers
In Denmark, unemployment among less educated young women (age 20-28) was associated with a nearly 50% higher likelihood of having a first child compared to employed women
Highly educated young women in Denmark who were unemployed had a 20% lower first birth rate
Among older women (29-43) in both countries, unemployment lowered first birth rates - by 8% in Denmark and 30% in Germany
Men's unemployment lowered first birth rates more at older ages (29-44) than at younger ages (20-28) in both countries
Unemployed two-child fathers had higher third-birth rates in both countries
About the data
The researchers, Michaela Kreyenfeld and Gunnar Andersson used "event history modeling" on large datasets to examine fertility differences by age, education, gender, and country.
Danish data came from population registers covering 1981-2001, allowing detailed analysis
German data was from the Socio-Economic Panel, a longitudinal survey from 1984-2010
Models accounted for factors like duration since previous birth and regional differences
Interaction effects revealed the unemployment-fertility relationship varies substantially across demographic groups
The backstory
Denmark and Germany represent contrasting welfare regimes and gender norms around families. Denmark is known for providing better support for balancing work and family Germany has historically favored a male breadwinner model, though policies are changing Female labor force participation rates are higher in Denmark The countries had differing unemployment patterns in the 1990s
Digging deeper
Educational differences in the unemployment effect were particularly striking:
Less educated unemployed young women and men had elevated first birth risks compared to their employed peers
The opposite was true for the highly educated, especially women, who postpone fertility when unemployed
Similar education gradients appeared for higher-order births as well
This may reflect the different job prospects and life course options by education level
Caveats
When broken down by multiple factors, the German survey data had small sample sizes in some subgroups.
The individual-level study could not incorporate the impact of aggregate unemployment rates.
Couple-level employment dynamics were not analyzed.
The bottom line
The connection between unemployment and fertility is not uniform but depends on age, education, gender, and social context. As economic uncertainty touches more people, policymakers should consider how the uneven impacts on family formation may shape populations.