Japan: Early career setbacks reduce marriage and birth rates
Japan: Early career setbacks reduce marriage and birth rates
A CSRDA Discussion Paper (Long-term Consequences of Early Career Disadvantages on Fertility: Evidence from Japan by Manting Chen) finds that men in Japan who start their careers in non-standard employment, such as temporary or contract work, face a major disadvantage when it comes to getting married and having children later in life compared to those who land stable jobs right out of school.
Why it matters
Japan has faced declining birth rates and an aging population for decades. This research suggests the rise of unstable employment for young men since the 1990s has exacerbated the problem by making it harder for them to start families.
By the numbers
Men whose first job was non-standard employment were about 30% less likely to have married and 35% less likely to have had a child by age 45 than men who started in stable jobs.
For the cohort entering the workforce in the 1970s-80s, 72.5% of men starting in standard employment were married by age 45, vs. 55.8% of non-standard workers.
Of the 1970s-80s cohort, 53.7% of those starting in standard jobs had a child by 45, compared to 29.4% for non-standard.
The marriage gap widened to 27 percentage points for the 1990s-2000s cohort: 74.9% married by 45 for standard employment vs. 47.8% for non-standard.
The child gap also increased, with 51.9% of standard workers in the 90s-00s cohort having a child by 45 vs. 31.3% for non-standard, a 20-point difference (up from 14 points in the previous cohort).
An estimated two-thirds of the fertility decline for non-standard workers can be attributed to delayed and foregone marriages.
The big picture
Japan's labor market emphasizes landing a stable job for life right out of school. Those stuck in temporary positions find it very difficult to transition to regular employment later on.
Combined with strong expectations for men to be the primary breadwinners, early career instability makes it harder for men to feel economically ready for marriage and fatherhood.
The lifetime employment model in Japan penalizes those who change jobs. Wages are based heavily on seniority, so a late start in stable employment permanently reduces lifetime earning potential.
About the study
The researchers used a special demographic method called multistate life tables to estimate the long-term marriage and fertility outcomes based on the employment status of the first job.
This allowed them to quantify the proportion of lower fertility they attribute to delayed marriages compared to lower fertility within marriages.
Supplementary analysis on women found much less impact of first job on long-term family outcomes, likely reflecting gendered economic roles.
The researchers say Japan's experience offers a cautionary tale for other countries facing precarious employment and low fertility, especially where significant household economic responsibilities still fall on men's shoulders.
Bottomline
Temporary jobs may offer flexibility in the short term, but if they become a trap instead of a stepping stone, they can have hugely detrimental impacts on family formation and fertility in the long run. Policymakers should take note as they address the twin challenges of labor market instability and demographic headwinds.