Korea: Work culture is crushing birth rates
A 2023 study(The impact of working hours on pregnancy intention in childbearing-age women in Korea, the country with the world’s lowest fertility rate by Taewook Kim) says Korea's notoriously long working hours are a key reason for the country's lowest fertility rate, as women struggle to balance careers and kids.
Why it matters
Korea's fertility rate plummeted to just 0.78 children per woman in 2022, the lowest of any country. Amid a fast-shrinking population, policymakers are racing to figure out how to persuade women to have more babies.
A rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain population stability. Korea's neighbors also face low rates, though not as dire: Japan (1.3), China (1.1), Taiwan (1.1), and Hong Kong (0.7).
Korea's rate has been below 1.3 since 2002 and ranked last globally since 2018. Its population is projected to fall 30% by 2070 as the 65+ share nears 50%.
About the Study
Taewook Kim from the Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Study analyzed data on over 22,000 Korean women aged 15-49 from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) to pinpoint what factors predict pregnancy plans.
Based on an XGBoost machine learning analysis, Weekly work hours emerged as the most important variable influencing pregnancy intentions. The model had an AUC of 0.675, accuracy of 0.516, precision of 0.166, and recall of 0.783.
Cluster analysis found that the group most likely to be pregnant worked an average of 34.4 hours per week. Logistic regression showed that 35-45 hours maximized the odds of pregnancy.
Specifically, the odds were 2.009 times higher for 40-45 hours (p<0.001) and 1.450 times higher for 35-40 hours (p<0.05) compared to other amounts.
In contrast, women working under 35 or over 45 hours were less likely to be expecting. Those clocking 60-65 hours had 80% lower pregnancy odds than the 35-45 range (p=0.022).
Key Points
As of 2022, Koreans work the second most hours among OECD nations. The legal workweek is 40 hours, but 52+-hour weeks are common in practice, and overtime is rampant.
Pregnant women were less likely to hold white-collar jobs (4.9% vs. 16.4% for non-pregnant, p<0.001) and worked fewer hours on average (17.3 vs. 24.6, p<0.001), suggesting they often downshift careers.
Pregnant women had higher education levels (66.8% had a bachelor's vs 60.7% for non-pregnant, p<0.001). However, the employment gap implies moms face barriers.
Highly educated women increasingly delay or forgo childbirth as they prioritize professional success. However, rigid labor markets make it hard to re-enter comparable jobs after birth.
Income-driven gaps in pregnancy rates were not found, likely thanks to Korea's robust economic growth. In 2019 its GDP was the world's 10th highest.
Long hours heavily affect Korean workers' health. Studies link them to poor mental health, musculoskeletal disorders, impaired kidney function, diabetes risk, and more.
For pregnant women, research shows extreme hours raise risks like low birth weight, complications, and preterm delivery.
The mean maternal age at first birth rose from 27.6 in 1993 to 31.6 in 2017. The share of pregnancies at advanced ages (35+) climbed from 6.2% in 1999 to 35.7% in 2022, increasing infertility.
Bottomline
Kim argues that the government should strictly cap working hours and expand flexible options like telework for women of childbearing age. Affordable infertility treatment access is also key as the population ages. Career-fixated work norms are a key obstacle to suppressing Korea's rock-bottom birth rates. Shifting to more family-friendly policies will be essential for reversing its demographic nose-dive. However, stemming the trend is an urgent challenge without easy answers.